NegotiateX Podcast | with Danielle Gilbert

HOSTED BY: NOLAN MARTIN & ARAM DONIGIAN

Understanding Hostage Dynamics In Global Conflicts

The Israeli government could have been more successful in securing hostages from Hamas by prioritizing negotiations over military interventions. Early concessions might have led to better outcomes.
Military rescue operations for hostages carry high risks and often yield low success rates. Negotiations and diplomatic strategies may offer safer and more effective alternatives for the return of hostages.
Hostage-taking continues to be a potent strategy for less powerful conflict actors, transitioning from conventional approaches to contemporary threats such as cyber-ransomware. Governments must anticipate and proactively prepare for emerging hostage crises.
Armed groups in Colombia used kidnapping as a coercive strategy to enforce “taxes” on local populations, punishing those who didn’t comply. This practice was integral to their broader economic and strategic objectives.
While negotiation skills are increasingly valued, social and political polarization among people threaten productive dialogue. Teaching future generations to engage meaningfully with differing perspectives is crucial.
Aspiring professionals can pursue careers in hostage diplomacy through academia or by working with governments, consulting firms, and advocacy organizations. There are multiple avenues for contributing to this field.

Table Of Content

Executive Summary:
Transcript:

Executive Summary:

Hello, everyone! Welcome back to the NEGOTIATE^x podcast. We’re continuing our discussion with Danielle Gilbert, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University. In Part A, Danielle delved into her groundbreaking research on international hostage situations, influenced by events such as the rise of the Islamic State and Boko Haram kidnappings.

She also examined “rebel kidnapping” tactics, government hostage recovery policies, and the concept of “hostage diplomacy,” shedding light on notable detention cases in Russia. Moreover, Danielle dispelled myths surrounding “no concessions” policies and explored the impact of media and the private sector in shaping public opinion and outcomes.

If you haven’t listened to Part A yet, we highly recommend doing so before diving into this episode. With that said, let’s continue the conversation.

Unpacking The Factors Behind Brittney Griner’s Release

Firstly, Aram seeks Danielle’s insights on the key factors that ensured Brittney Griner’s successful release from Russia.

Danielle notes that some of the key factors included the ongoing negotiations despite adversarial relations between the US and Russia, significant media attention, and public pressure on the Biden administration. With heightened public scrutiny, the administration intensified its efforts to secure the release of American captives through strategic prisoner exchanges.

Revisiting Hostage Strategies: Insights On Israeli Negotiations With Hamas

Next, Nolan asks Danielle if there was a hostage negotiation that, in hindsight, could have been more successful if different actions had been taken.

In response, Danielle reflects on the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas concerning hostage recovery. She argues that the Israeli government could have been more effective in securing hostages by prioritizing negotiations. However, they have focused more on dismantling Hamas than on securing the hostages’ release.

Danielle believes that if recovering hostages had been the primary focus, more captives might have returned home, especially if actions were taken early during the crisis. She contends that had the Israeli government made enough concessions in the early stages of the hostage situation, a more successful outcome could have been achieved.

The Perils & Pitfalls Of Military Hostage Recovery Operations

Moving on, Danielle elaborates on the realities of hostage recovery, emphasizing the dangers and low success rates of direct military rescue missions. She highlights that, unlike Hollywood’s portrayal of such rescues, real military operations to recover hostages are very risky. There’s a high chance that hostages could be killed during these attempts, either accidentally in the crossfire or intentionally by their captors.

Danielle argues that while military actions might pressure captors into making concessions, they are not the most effective or safest method to ensure hostages return home alive. If she were advising the Israeli government, she would prioritize hostage recovery over direct military interventions.

Evolving Strategies & The Continuing Global Security Challenge

Danielle goes on to discuss the strategic dynamics of hostage-taking across historical and contemporary contexts. She notes that hostage-taking empowers weaker conflict actors by giving them leverage over stronger adversaries. As a result, it remains effective in coercing governments, provoking them into potential overreactions, and leveraging public and media pressure.

Danielle also highlights that hostage-taking methods have evolved over the years, ranging from piracy and airplane hijackings to state-sponsored abductions and cyber-ransomware. She urges governments to anticipate future hostage crises, such as those potentially involving driverless vehicles and drones, and to develop strategies in collaboration with international allies to address these evolving threats.

This proactive approach, she believes, is crucial to effectively managing the shifting landscape of global security threats.

Kidnapping Dynamics During Colombia’s Civil War

Danielle also shares insights from her upcoming book, which focuses on the dynamics of kidnapping during Colombia’s civil conflict. Her interest in this topic began a decade ago, leading her to Colombia for field research. She arrived at a critical time in 2016 when the FARC, a major insurgent group notorious for kidnapping, signed a peace deal with the Colombian government.

Her research included interviews with around 150 individuals involved in kidnapping incidents, from former kidnappers and hostages to private negotiators and security personnel. Through these interviews, she aimed to understand the motivations and operational tactics behind kidnappings conducted by armed groups like the FARC and the ELN during the civil war.

Danielle argues that these groups used kidnapping primarily as a means to enforce “taxes” on local populations, treating it akin to a protection racket. Those who failed to pay were kidnapped as a form of punishment and a method to recoup perceived losses while also warning others about the consequences of non-payment.

Through her book, Danielle seeks to enrich the dialogue on kidnapping by offering a detailed and nuanced exploration of its strategic use by armed groups in conflict scenarios. The book highlights how kidnapping affects their broader economic and coercive strategies.

Teaching Tactics: Shaping Negotiators For Military & Civilian Arenas

Moving on, Aram asks Danielle to describe her teaching approach for negotiation and conflict resolution courses and whether it differs for military academies versus civilian universities.

Danielle mentions that her approach to teaching negotiation and conflict resolution varies depending on the institution. She previously taught at the US Air Force Academy, focusing on turning future military officers into skilled negotiators. The course there, “Principles of Negotiation,” was designed to impart practical and transferable skills, given that negotiation is a critical skill in both military and civilian contexts.

At Northwestern University, where she now teaches, Danielle has designed a course that blends traditional negotiation principles with political science. This course combines in-class negotiation exercises with real-world political scenarios, such as civil war resolution, mediation by third parties, and legislative negotiations.

Her goal is to integrate negotiation skills into political science education, a combination that she believes is often overlooked but essential for understanding and engaging in political processes.

Future Of Negotiation: Opportunities In Adaptability & Challenges In Polarization

Danielle discusses the evolving field of negotiation and conflict resolution, highlighting opportunities and challenges that may arise in the next decade. She emphasizes the growing recognition of negotiation skills as valuable across all areas of life, noting that any job can involve elements of negotiation and conflict resolution.

Danielle encourages her students to apply these skills to their specific areas of interest, viewing this adaptability as an exciting opportunity for the future. However, she also acknowledges significant challenges, particularly the increasing social and political polarization among people. The growing tendency for communities to become siloed and the pressure to avoid engaging with those with different beliefs can hinder productive dialogue and negotiation.

Charting A Career In Hostage Diplomacy: Academic & Professional Paths

Finally, Danielle offers insightful advice for individuals aspiring to pursue careers in hostage diplomacy and related research. She notes that earning a Ph.D. and entering academia is one path to the field, which is ideal for those keen on deep research into complex issues like hostage-taking.

For those with aspirations outside of academia, Danielle highlights that much of hostage diplomacy work occurs within governments, consulting firms, and advocacy organizations. She mentions organizations like Hostage US, the Foley Foundation, and the Bring Our Families Home Campaign, which support hostage families and contribute to efforts in hostage diplomacy.

Danielle invites anyone interested in this field to explore these avenues, emphasizing multiple ways to contribute meaningfully to this area of work.

Danielle, Aram, and Nolan discuss more on this episode of the NEGOTIATE^x podcast. Write to us at team@negotiatex.com and share your thoughts on the episode. Also, we’d be thrilled if you could rate us on Apple Podcasts to help us grow and improve.

Thank you for your time!

Transcript

Nolan Martin :

Hey everyone! Thanks for joining us on the NEGOTIATEx podcast. We are continuing our conversation with Danielle Gilbert, assistant professor of political science at Northwestern university. If you haven’t already checked out part A of this show, be sure to do that first. Let’s jump in the conversation with Danny

Aram Donigian:

Can I ask on the Brittney Griner piece? What did you find to be the reason that was a successful outcome?

The Complex Dynamics Of Negotiating Hostage Releases [01:11]

Danielle Gilbert:

So, there’s a few different reasons that I think that one was successful. I think, first of all, I think that Brittney Griner coming home as well as Trevor Reed, who came home from Russia earlier in 2022, it’s just a reminder that even in cases where countries are adversaries and as is usually the case in a hostage taking of that sort and hostage diplomacy, that they are able to negotiate with each other. They are able to talk with each other to make these deals to bring someone home. So I think that’s one thing that we should keep in mind about these various cases.

I think there was a big role for media, I think there was a lot of public pressure on the Biden administration to help not just Brittney Griner, but the other ongoing cases of Americans who were and are held captive in Russia, including Paul Whelan, who has been there for years at this point serving out his own sentence there. But I think that there was a willingness, frankly, there was a willingness on both sides to make difficult decisions. I think that the Biden administration has shown its commitment to working on these cases to making prisoner exchanges to really doing what it can to recover the Americans who are held captive abroad and crucially Vladimir Putin was willing to let her go.

There’s, it was a big question at the end of her recovery that Brittney Greiner came home, but Paul Whelan did not. And Paul has been in Russia since before President Biden even took office. He was arrested during the Trump administration. He has been a part of many other potential deals when other prisoners did come home but he is still in a penal colony in Russia. And so the question really becomes from the outside is it that Vladimir Putin is not willing at all to let him go? Or that they haven’t been able to find the right price, right?

That the US government is not able to give something that the Russians are willing to accept in exchange for his freedom. And for Brittney Griner they found the right price in a way that they haven’t yet for Paul Whelan.

NM:

Is there a hostage negotiation that you researched where you look back upon and see how could it have been more effective or successful if some things have been done differently?

Challenges & Missed Opportunities In Hostage Recovery Efforts [03:59]

DG:

I certainly have in mind the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas. I think that it doesn’t seem that it would be something that the Israeli government would be willing to do. But there are concessions that would bring the Captives home. And they’re it’s unclear at this point all these months in how many of the hostages are still alive, but it’s possible that in the early days, that back in October, November, that there might have been a way to bring more of those captives home, and I think that the Israeli government could have done much more instead their mission of what they’re doing in Gaza they’ve always said has two purposes.

The first is to destroy Hamas. The second is to recover the hostages. And I think the listing of those priorities indicates their value to the Israeli government. I think if the first priority was recovering the hostages, many more of them would already be home.

AD:

Do you have any specifics, Danny, in terms of, in those early couple of days, I don’t know, or even the first, let’s say just the first two weeks after October 7th? Had you had a seat at the table in Israel? What would have been the, what would have been the advice? What are the specifics to say in, assuming you’re making an assumption here that the priority there is let’s get the hostages home?

The Reality of Hostage Recovery: Risks & Realities Beyond Hollywood Portrayals [05:27]

DG:

Yeah, so one of the things that I know from my research is that hostage recovery missions are very rare, and they are very rarely successful.

I think that Hollywood has led us to believe that most hostages come home through these, epic military takedowns, breaking down the door and recovering the captives and bringing them home alive while killing the perpetrators, those are quite rare in real life, and they often go very poorly. And part of the reason that they’re rare and go poorly is that a hostage recovery is the most likely moment in captivity for a hostage to die. They might die accidentally in the crossfire, the captor might take that opportunity to kill them so that they thwart the success of the recovery mission.

And so knowing that those missions are extremely dangerous and unlikely to be successful, I would have urged them not to take that as their primary effort to bring the captives home. One of the things that you will hear from the Israeli government is that the military invasion has put pressure on Hamas to make concessions that they otherwise would not have made. And I take that seriously. I do think that there is some serious leverage with the kind of invasion that the military has engaged in but it is not the best way to make sure that hostages come home alive.

AD:

As a follow up question. I mean there are no shortage of global conflicts and you get brought in to advise governments. You’ve been asked, you’ve offered to both the British and the Canadian and US Governments. What is either present or lacking? This very high strategic level of, government’s in terms of I don’t know if it’s mindset. I don’t know if it’s being skilled, but what is either present or absent in terms of being able to handle these conflicts and the kidnappings and the hostage taking and so forth more effectively, in your opinion.

The Unchanging Dynamics of Hostage Taking In Shifting Contexts [07:47]

DG:

Yeah. So, one of the things that has emerged quite clearly to, to me as I’ve conducted this research over the last decade is that even though, as you’ve mentioned, both of you, that the complexity of everything I’m talking about, all of these different shades of gray between different kinds of perpetrators and different kinds of abduction and, the details are different.

There are some aspects to hostage taking that fundamentally remain and have been consistent not just over decades, but over centuries. And that is that it is quite effective, at least in the short term, for perpetrators to hold a human being captive for leverage. It gives a lot of power to otherwise quite weak actors and especially to weak actors in their efforts against stronger adversaries.

Targets who might A, be tempted to. They might be provoked into an overreaction like we see right now with Israel and Hamas; they also might be pressured by their publics, as we see with this media. And hostage taking is frankly quite effective. And the form has shifted dramatically over time, right?

We have piracy and airplane hijacking and embassy sieges, a move to surreptitious kidnappings by different kinds of armed groups now becoming increasingly the purview of state governments once more. So one of the things that I think that governments, policymakers should all be thinking about is the fact that this form of violence, even though it might look different in these different manifestations, is quite similar over time and continues to shift. And so we are often responding very late to today’s hostage crisis or even yesterday’s hostage crisis. But what we need to be thinking about are what are going to be the hostage crises of the future. And I think that thinking about how changing technology might assist different kinds of hostage taking, looking at ransomware, which I think is a form of hostage taking or virtual hijackings.

We’re moving into an era talking about driverless vehicles and drones and things like that. Are they at risk for being hijacked in a new way. And so thinking ahead, working with allies and partners, coming up with a united front about how to deal with this I think is going to help everyone looking ahead to the continued evolution of this ancient form of violence.

NM:

Could you share more about your current book project on why and how armed groups kidnapped during civil war? Maybe a bit about what you hope it adds to the dialogue and discussion on this topic.

A Deep Dive Into Kidnapping Dynamics During Colombia’s Civil Conflict [10:50]

DG:

Sure. I am very happy to talk about this. Taking us back a decade to when I first decided that I wanted to study kidnapping. I knew that I wanted to talk to perpetrators. I wanted to really understand directly from people who have kidnapped. How and why they do it and what that has meant for their organization. And so right around the time that I was starting my dissertation was 2016. And in 2016 the FARC, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, which had been the oldest and largest insurgent group in the Western Hemisphere was signing a peace deal with the Government of Colombia to end their decades of violence.

And the FARC were some of the world’s most notorious kidnappers. And for almost the luck of the timing, that it became a really viable time to speak to former kidnappers and not knock on wood, be kidnapped myself. So I decided to go to Colombia and spend some time speaking to former perpetrators. And once I arrived in Colombia the first time for my research, I ended up speaking to not only former kidnappers from a whole range of different armed groups in Colombia but I had the opportunity to meet former hostages and their family members. Private hostage negotiators and security personnel officers from the military and from the police who had been combating kidnapping in Columbia for decades.

And so I conducted around 150 interviews with folks across the kidnapping spectrum and across the kidnapping life cycle to really understand how it works. So my book is based on those interviews and explaining what kidnapping looked like in the Colombian Civil War. And one of the primary things that I find and argue in the book is that The two biggest left wing rebel groups in Colombia, the FARC and the ELN, the National Liberation Army, used kidnapping to enforce the “taxes” that they imposed on local populations.

And I say taxes, we might put it in quotes but Armed groups, just like the state, impose an expectation of payment on local populations and they treat it like a protection racket. They essentially say, If you pay me, you’re safe. But if you don’t, you are subject to violence that I might impose on you. And so the FARC and the ELN used kidnapping as a way to punish those who didn’t pay the taxes that they felt that the population owed them. And kidnapping was, for them, what they saw as an effective and appropriate punishment. Because it recouped money lost, perceived as lost. They were able to make back those tax payments.

But they were also able to use the kidnapping to threaten and advertise to the hostage’s neighbor. If you don’t pay up, this could happen to you. So that’s what the book’s about.

AD:

Fascinating. Do you have a timeline on it?

DG:

Academic publishing works very slowly. So I’m working on some revisions now and hope to submit it to a publisher by the end of this year.

AD:

Oh, wonderful. Good luck and keep us posted as you do that. Danny, you’ve taught negotiation and conflict resolution at several institutions. Can you tell us a little bit about the approach you take to teaching these courses and has it varied or does it vary whether you’re teaching at a military academy versus a civilian university?

Integrating Negotiation Skills Into Military & Political Education [14:50]

DG:

Sure. So as you mentioned at the beginning, I was a professor in the military and strategic studies department at the US Air Force Academy for several years. And I had the opportunity while I was there to teach the Principles of Negotiation class, that’s part of the Negotiations program at USAFA, that Aram is part of the General program that you created at West Point and they brought it over to the Air Force Academy.

So, I am a student of your legacy as well. And I loved the opportunity to teach this class at the Air Force Academy, thinking about how to turn future officers in the Air Force and Space Force into thoughtful, creative, savvy negotiators, because as your listeners know, negotiation is everywhere.

You don’t have to be conducting hostage negotiations to be negotiating all the time in your day to day life. And seeing it as a transferable skill set that is useful when you are negotiating with your commanding officer, or negotiating with an adversary, or negotiating with someone who’s selling you a house or a car, that all of that is so important.

I loved the opportunity to learn that skill set, that pedagogy while I was at the Air Force Academy. And that class in many ways is set up like a standard principles of negotiation class that you might take at a business school or a law school or a policy school. Though a lot of the negotiations have a geopolitics tinge to them, especially later in the course. So now I’m at Northwestern, I’m in a political science department and I designed a new class that I’ve been teaching here this past year that is a negotiations and conflict resolution class. And it’s essentially blending the principles of negotiation with a focus on negotiation in political science.

And so rather than exclusively focusing on the skill set of the negotiations, I pair each in class negotiation exercise that the students do with a real world political negotiation that might highlight the specific elements that come up in their particular negotiation. So applying it to thinking about how do you end a civil war. How do you work with mediation of third parties? What does it look like to negotiate in Congress? I have the students doing negotiations that are specifically politically focused and thinking about land rights and water rights and the Iran nuclear negotiations and things like that.

And so it’s effectively trying to marry these two disciplines that are so seldom brought together, even though so much of political science is about negotiation but to really bring the skill set of a negotiations class into the political science classroom.

AD:

Yeah, I like that model. So practice with real world application. Yeah, that’s a nice model, Danny.

DG:

Thanks.

NM:

Earlier, you mentioned how kidnapping and hostage taking is evolving. Are there other ways you see the field of negotiation and conflict resolution evolving in the next decade? What are the greatest challenges and opportunities?

Bridging Differences: The Expanding Role Of Negotiation Skills In Contemporary Society [18:30]

DG:

So, I’m relatively new to it myself. I would say anything that I see as a future challenge or opportunity we can take this with a grain of salt, but I think it’s becoming increasingly clear how valuable and important the skillset is. For anyone in any part of life and that there are so many different ways that someone can work in negotiations or conflict resolution that any job effectively can be a negotiations or conflict resolution job. And so that’s the kind of thing that I tell my students all the time to, you know, they get so excited by a class like this. They get so excited by the skill set and the opportunity to think a different way. And I’m always encouraging them to think about how they might take that skill set and apply it to the world that they are particularly interested in.

I think that might be a really exciting opportunity. I think the challenges are, of course, manifold. There’s problems that can arise in negotiation particularly the way that our communities and our audiences have become very siloed. I think that there is sometimes social and political pressure not to speak to people who disagree with you, not to speak to people who are different and have a different set of beliefs.

And it’s really challenging to speak to anyone in the political sphere or to encourage young people that actually it’s not always about being the loudest, it’s not always about convincing someone that you are right but figuring out how you can build a bridge to others. And so I think that might be an increasing challenge of our time.

AD:

Danny, this has been a fascinating conversation. I would even say although the topic is a heavy one the work you’re doing is inspiring. I could imagine a listener saying, I want to get into that field and follow in her footsteps. How would you advise somebody who’s thinking that right now in terms of, how do I get to do some of this cool research and work that you’re involved in?

Exploring Career Options In Hostage Diplomacy & Research [20:53]

DG:

That’s very kind. And if anyone is actually thinking that, I welcome them very much because there are so many unanswered questions. There are so many remaining problems in this area that need good, thoughtful people working on them to solve them.

So, I will embrace you with open arms if you come to join me in this way. The path that I have taken is not the traditional one for a negotiator. I’m in the academic space and not even in the traditional negotiations academic space. So, getting a Ph. D. and focusing on this research is that’s the clearest way to have a job like the one that I have and I do think it is important for more people who really have that toolkit to research in a deliberate, careful, considerate way, because I think that these problems are very complicated can become quite polarizing and partisan and that we’re not going to come up with the best solutions unless we really understand the underlying phenomenon.

So, I welcome anyone listening who wants to invest in many years of school to do so because those questions are out there and we need the answers. And that’s certainly one way. Another is that so much of this work right now is happening in governments around the world, in consulting firms and in advocacy organizations.

So if you are interested in exploring more about hostage taking or hostage diplomacy, but not necessarily from the research side there are some phenomenal organizations including a group called Hostage US, including the Foley Foundation, the Bring Our Families Home Campaign. These are organizations that work to support hostage families and there’s plenty of government work focused on this problem as well. So I think if hostage taking really strikes an interest for you, there’s many different ways in.

AD:

Danny. Thank you. Really appreciate your time today and your insights. So wish you the very best, but thanks for taking the time, especially after a trip to talk to us.

DG:

Thank you so much for having me. I really enjoyed chatting with you and hope this conversation was helpful for others.

NM:

Absolutely. That’s it for us on today’s podcast. If you haven’t already, please rate, review, and subscribe to the NEGOTIATEx podcast, and we’ll see you in the next episode.